War follows the ground

Humans have probably always killed one another. Warfare is something narrower. It implies groups, planning, logistics, memory, leadership, and enough social organisation that violence stops being a personal act and becomes a collective institution. The interesting question is not when humans first killed. It is when ki…

July 16, 2026 · 20 min

Peace has running costs

Organised violence tends to appear where the substrate makes it the higher-return move, and to recede where it does not. That is one way to read the origins of war. Inverted, the same reading yields a second claim, less obvious and more useful. If war is what the ground rewards under some conditions, then peace is what…

July 16, 2026 · 9 min

Reading the envelope

Reading the Substrate argued that analysis of conflict tends to read a story first and the ground beneath it late, and that the ordering is often backwards in its emphasis: ideas set a conflict’s direction, conditions set its reach. That was a claim using looking backwards, about explaining wars that have already happe…

July 1, 2026 · 9 min

Building an exit from capitalism

A boring, decades-long plan for getting out of capitalism without burning the village down The two stories most often told about how to get past capitalism both fail in roughly the same way. The first is a Big Bang: revolutionary seizure of state power, redesign from above. The historical track record is grim. New rule…

April 30, 2026 · 14 min