Reading the envelope

Reading the Substrate argued that analysis of conflict tends to read a story first and the ground beneath it late, and that the ordering is often backwards in its emphasis: ideas set a conflict’s direction, conditions set its reach. That was a claim using looking backwards, about explaining wars that have already happe…

July 1, 2026 · 9 min

The Dealer smiles?

We are told that world politics is a chess game. Grandmasters move pieces across a board, sacrificing pawns to protect kings, calculating six moves ahead. It is rational. It is elegant. It is, above all, knowable. This is a lie. After walking through the resource wars of Venezuela, Greenland, Iran, Ukraine, Russia and …

May 1, 2026 · 10 min

Russia’s youth exodus and the Kremlin’s desperate crackdown

Note: All personal names have been anonymised unless the individual has a verifiable public presence and wishes to be visible. I choose to run risks; I will not make that choice for others. He was 21 and already battling high blood pressure. His doctors confirmed it. His exemption papers were in order. But that didn’t …

June 3, 2025 · 6 min